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The recent re-election of Barack Obama President reconfirms an important
demographic reality. America
is becoming a more ethnically diverse nation. Suburban demographics
are following this mega trend. According to Alan Berube, Senior Fellow
& Deputy Director of the Metropolitan Policy Program, these changes can
broadly be summarized as a continuing demographic convergence in our
metropolitan areas. That is to say that the suburbs and the cities are
becoming demographically similar. For suburban America, this means their
populations are becoming more non-white. This convergence is the result of
a combination of economic, social and physical changes. These changes are
producing a host of consequences. On the positive side, where the suburbs
were once only bedroom communities, today they now host 45 percent of all
metropolitan jobs. Increased ethic diversification can also be
viewed as a positive trend.
With the growth of suburban jobs comes increased affordable housing.
As a result of the "Great Recession'" many suburban communities are
facing a wave of housing foreclosures and exposure to poverty unlike ever
before. Additional burdens come from increased numbers of aging
baby boomers. While these realities put new demands on provision of services,
resources are limited due to declining property values and forced reductions in
local revenue streams by conservative state legislatures.
Clearly, adaptations are needed to accommodate new demographic
realities. As a short-term response to the Great Recession, city
administrators have moved to "rightsize" their governmental work
forces. For the most part this has now been accomplished.
Positioning government structures to efficiently address demographic
transformations may be more challenging.
Here's my working list of structural changes to be considered:
1. Reposition your city's amenity package: Most suburbs were created
after World War II.
The community amenities provided to attract residents in the 1960s are not
those that will attract or support the emerging generations of residents.
Perhaps the largest of these is the golf course. Be it publicly or
privately owned, in all probability it is not financially performing as it once
did. All signs point to continued decline in the golfing population.
The 100 or so acres of a 18-hole golf course offer opportunities to create new
public and park amenities of connected green space that responds to the
interests of the up-and-coming.
2. Placemaking:
Much has already been written and discussed on
this topic. The demographic angle for placemaking in the suburbs pertains to
the ability of the city to attract new generations of residents. The
millennials and
generations x's desire experiential lifestyles and are looking for energized social and cultural activities. Cities need to building public spaces which can host daily, weekly and monthly concerts, festivals and impromptu gatherings. Properly designed, these spaces are further activated by private sector investment in adjacent restaurants functioning as
third spaces. A very successful execution of this concept can be found in
Suwanee, Georgia's new town center and 10-acre park, which is financially out performing more traditional retail centers around it. Such spaces attract the new generations with their ever expanding purchasing power, important for expanding the local economy and tax base.
3. Densification and Housing Diversification: Along with activated
places, securing the new housing products desired by new generations is
paramount to meeting the demographic challenge. For all practical
purposes we are talking about highly amenitized, new apartment projects.
Coordinated development through strategic public-private partnerships so to
co-locate the housing adjacent to the new public spaces is ideal.
4. Corridor Repair: A great place to locate additional density
is along the commercial corridors now consisting of vacant and low-performing
strip centers. Revising the city's code to allow residential in general
commercial corridors and provide for sufficient density to energize private
sector investors should be considered.
Suburban cities with proactive responses to the changing demographic shifts
documented in the 2010 census will be in a much better position to capture the
financial upside offered by these trends. To ignore them may well be
detrimental to your city's success. As always, feedback to these thoughts
is greatly appreciated.
